Fibonacci in forex 8

How to draw a fibonacci retracement correctly.

There are many ways to draw a Fibonacci retracement, but only one way to draw it correctly.

Fibonacci retracements work really well, but only if they are drawn properly. There are many ways to draw them and I can confidently tell you that the majority of what you find online is wrong, sadly. Today, however, I hope to teach you how to draw a Fibonacci Retracement correctly in order to find key levels to buy and sell from. This is the first step to really unlocking the key to profitable trading in Forex – trust me.

Now, the trick to knowing how to draw Fibonacci Retracements correctly comes from knowing that inherently, they come from chaos theory and have close links to Elliott Wave and Harmonics. We will leave that can of worms unopened as I drill down into the correct ways to look at the swing high and swing low points of the chart where you will be drawing your Fibonacci Retracements from.

What makes me qualified to teach this tough subject?

Former technical analysis advisor to the largest banks and hedge funds including Goldman Sachs, Brevan Howard, Citibank, and Nomura. Currently runs the technical analysis division of the largest brokers including IC Markets, Tickmill, FXCM, Pepperstone, and 10+ more. Backed by a team of CMT, CFTe and CFA accredited analysts. The Technical Analyst Award: 2022 & 2022 for Best FX Research, 2022 for Best Equity Research Master in Elliott Wave and Harmonics (which is where a lot of the Fibonacci tricks come from).

Can you trade full-time just by learning Fibonacci Retracements (and Fibonacci extensions)?

Yes, you can, it is through the art of Fibonacci confluence (lining up multiple Fibonacci levels to find strong areas of support/resistance). This works primarily with a scalping and day trading strategy.

I personally recommend you add these on top of Fibonacci confluence to improve your profitability:

It all still revolves around the concept of confluence – finding multiple studies that combine well together to determine high probability trading setups.

Here’s a video interview of me (Chief Trader, Desmond Leong) on how I’m able to trade full-time and run an award-winning research firm.

Do you have a video explaining how you trade with Fibonacci Retracements?

Yup! If you prefer to watch videos (versus reading), please go through this video and check it out as I dive deeply into how I use Fibonacci retracements to trade.

Warning: It’s really complicated (but powerful) lol. So please take the time to really master this skill.

Really cool - but do you have one on Fibonacci Extensions too?

I recommend you watch this after you have mastered Fibonacci retracements. But if you feel confident enough, by all means, please watch this video on Fibonacci extensions (which I combine very effectively to trade with Fibonacci retracements).

Can Fibonacci Retracement work in both choppy markets and trending markets?

The short answer to this is: Yes . Fibonacci retracements work well in both choppy (range bound) markets and trending markets. However, one of the most important things you need to take note of is that the structure and the movements have to be clear . What do I mean by that? Take a look at the pictures below.

Unclear market structure:

An example of a chart structure that looks really good is the one below. You can see that you know exactly where are the major swing highs and major swing lows which are crucially important to use when drawing Fibonacci retracements (and extensions).

Clear market structure:

So the first thing to know is that while Fibonacci Retracements can be used in both choppy and trending markets, one of the key things to look out for is a clear market structure.

Adjusting time frames for clearer market structure.

One important thing we can do to find clearer market structures to do our Fibonacci analysis is to adjust the time frames so that the market structure is clearer. What might look messy on an M30 chart might look very clear on an H4 chart.

If there’s too much chaos in the shorter time frames, it does not mean that the entire currency pair is not able to be analyzed at that point of time – it could simply mean that we need to take a step back (or sometimes a step forward) to get a clearer view. Here are some examples of that.

Unclear market structure from M15 view:

Unclear fibonacci market structure.

Clear market structure from H1 view:

At the very basics, the clearer the swing low, the clearer the swing high and the clearer the “trend” between these 2 points, the more accurate a Fibonacci Retracement will be.

Now, when I say trending market, this doesn’t mean those super long trends that last for months and years. It all depends on the chart time frame you look at. You can be looking at an M15 chart and say “wow this has to be a megatrend!” but when you take a step back and look at it, it is only a chart showing a few days. Any time frame can have a trend , albeit it can be either a short term one or a long term one.

Fibonacci Rule: Trend line MUST Follow Price Structure Closely.

Whether you are drawing Fibonacci retracements, projections, extensions or expansions, there is one important rule:

– Your Fibonacci trend line MUST follow price structure clearly. – Trend line can deviate from price structure, but not by too much.

In the example below – you can see two examples. One follows price closely while the other cuts through price structure.

The trendline can deviate from price structure by a bit, but most of it should follow price structure.

Wrong way of drawing Fibonacci - the trend line cuts through price structure and the deviation is too much.

Correct way of drawing Fibonacci - even through the second fibonacci retracement cuts through market structure, it didn't deviate by too much.

The Fibonacci Retracement Levels That Work (Tried and tested over the years)

There are many Fibonacci retracement levels out there and for me, a person who combines Elliott Wave, Harmonics, Chaos Theory, and Fibonacci studies – I will narrow it down to a couple of Fibonacci retracement levels that work and leave out the rest. This is from my own years of testing.

Fibonacci Retracement levels between 0% to 100%

23.6% 38.2% 50% 61.8% 76.4% or 78.6% 88%

These are the key Fibonacci retracement levels that work – there is always a huge debate on whether some levels work better vs the others but honestly – the truth is that Fibonacci retracement levels work sometimes – all the time . And that’s the problem.

The trick is to find multiple Fibonacci retracement levels lining up together so that you can increase the probability of a bunch of Fibonacci retracement levels working versus a single Fibonacci retracement level working – This is the definition of Fibonacci confluence.

Now, what I want to do next is to teach you what to look out for when you are about to draw a Fibonacci retracement.

How to draw a Fibonacci retracement correctly: 4 Essential Steps.

There are 4 essential steps:

Is the market structure clear? (Look for big zig zags) Identify the recent trend – prices going down or up? Identify recent major swing lows and recent major swing highs Connect the 2 extreme points – highest to lowest (downtrend), lowest to highest (uptrend)

Now you have Fibonacci retracement lines showing you when you can expect a bounce or a reaction (drop).

To find key resistance levels: We begin at the highest point and end at the lowest point.

To find key support levels: We begin at the lowest point and end at the highest point.

IMPORTANT: If you are looking for retracements (from 0% to 100% range), your ending points should never have any bars to the right that ‘breaks’ it . So for downtrends with an ending point that is the lowest point of the trend, there should not be any bars that are lower than it. You can better understand it through this illustration :

This is a correct example of taking the highest starting point to the lowest.

Fibonacci retracements have a (1) starting and (2) ending point as seen in this gif.

Correct way of drawing Fibonacci retracement from the highest point to the lowest point.

When does your Fibonacci Retracement become invalid?

Yes, there are times when your Fibonacci Retracement becomes invalid. One of the most common scenarios of this is when price makes a lower-low (assuming you are drawing a Fibonacci retracement from the top to the bottom like in the picture below).

If there are bars on the right that ‘break’ your ending point, it becomes invalid. Here’s an example :

Incorrect way of drawing fibonacci retracement.

You can see that you should essentially be taking what I call the ATL (All Time Low) as your ending point if you are drawing a Fibonacci retracement from the top to the bottom (hence finding resistance levels).

Now, there are Fibonacci retracements that are negative (-27%, -61.8%) and we will touch on these as they basically go beyond your endpoint (like the image above) YET they are still valid.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels (0% to -100%)

Now that we covered the Fibonacci retracement levels from 0% to 100%, we will look at what happens when there are Fibonacci retracements that go beyond the 0% (meaning they are in the negative range). These are actually a form of Fibonacci extension (because it extends beyond the range) but strictly speaking, they use the Fibonacci retracement tool and there is a Fibonacci extension tool which we’ll touch on later (that requires picking 3 points vs 2 points).

These are the Fibonacci retracement levels you can consider in the negative retracement zone which are useful. All the rest I found to be quite useless.

Now, this is how a negative Fibonacci retracement looks like (along with the normal range 0-100% and positive range >100%):

What you immediately notice is that -27.2% and -61.8% is below the ending point so price could technically continue to drop from here and the Fibonacci retracement would still be valid (but the normal range from 0-100% won’t be valid once price goes beyond the ending point).

“Wow, that’s freaking confusing. Can you explain it a bit more?”

Definitely, reading it myself, I still get confused.

The negative Fibonacci retracements are most useful when price reversed up to about the 50% to 78.6% range before continuing to drop. It is NOT effective if it only retraces up to 38.2% (like in the picture above) before it drops beyond the ending point. Let me show you an example of what is a really nice negative Fibonacci retracement.

Part 1 : This is how you draw a negative Fibonacci retracement that first reacts off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement before dropping beyond point 2 (the ending point).

Part 2 : You can see how price drops really nicely to the -27.2% Fibonacci retracement level where it bounces up.

Pro tip : Price tends to make a bounce back up to the ending point which is a pullback resistance level (we have an indicator for that).

So the key thing you should take note of is to watch out for the -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and -61.8% Fibonacci retracement. These are particularly useful when you line them up with bigger Fibonacci retracements and even Fibonacci extensions.

Pro tip: Look for a “Flash” zigzag when identifying these fibonacci expansions.

Explanation: Refer to the gif before. The clearer the movement of the “Flash” zigzag, the better. We ideally need to wait for prices to retrace at least 50% in point (3) before taking off in the other direction (also preferably in a straight line movement).

Fibonacci expansion uses the Fibonacci retracement tool. It starts at (1) and ends at (2). Price needs to minimally retrace at least 50% as seen in point (3) before it can continue its move up.

Is a Fibonacci Retracement enough to trade profitably?

Short answer: No.

The simple fact is: YOU WILL ALWAYS FIND FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS.

Imagine using the example above, I told you to sell when price reaches the 23%, then the 38%, then the 50%, followed by the 61.8%, then the 78.6% and on and on and on. What’s going to happen at the end of that? Well, you would have lost a lot of money and probably be spending a bit more money to buy that next plane ticket to find me and kick my teeth in (which I really do not wish to happen).

The trick to trading Fibonacci retracements profitably is in using them in conjunction with other Fibonacci levels. This includes other Fibonacci retracements from a bigger/shorter trend, using Fibonacci extensions (we will cover this), using support and resistance (correctly), identifying the True RSI areas and also price action. What this results in is you increase your odds tremendously on getting into profitable trade setups.

Essentially, you are trading something called Fibonacci Confluence which is where the beauty of chaos theory comes in.

Do you provide Fibonacci Confluence trading signals?

So i’m adding in this section here because a lot of people are asking if I can provide Fibonacci Confluence trading signals so they can better understand how to trade this amazing strategy through examples.

If you’d like to get such signals for free, please pop in your details below to join my free mailing list ��

Fibonacci Confluence trading signals.

How to combine Multiple Fibonacci Retracements to create Fibonacci Confluence?

Fibonacci Confluence is essentially combining multiple Fibonacci levels (can be retracements or extensions) to find clusters where these Fibonacci levels congregate. The area where they congregate would pose a strong level to play a trade from.

Usually, when people trade Fibonacci, they are “ contrarian ” traders, meaning they are looking to play the bounce/reaction in the other direction. What this means, in other words, is if price is dropping, I am looking for a level to buy from. If price is rising strongly, I am looking for a level to sell from.

Now, when you try to do Fibonacci Confluence, you’ll need to ensure you really know how to draw Fibonacci properly because you are multiplying the chances of you drawing it wrongly (and hence trading wrongly and losing money) as you draw more and more Fibonacci retracements to get that confluence.

My general rule of thumb is that I try to find at least 3 Fibonacci levels to call it a cluster. This can be in the form of:

3 x Fibonacci Retracements 2 x Fibonacci Retracements + 1 x Fibonacci Extension 1 x Fibonacci Retracement + 2 x Fibonacci Extensions.

I rarely go for 3 x Fibonacci extensions. Let’s go through some examples of this.

Combining 3 Fibonacci Retracement levels.

Combining 3 Fibonacci retracement levels to line up at a certain level can be quite difficult as you will need to master the art of using the Fibonacci retracements > 100% (such as 127.2% and 161.8%) along with the negative Fibonacci retracements (such as -27.2% and -61.8%).

Let me show you how I combine 3 Fibonacci retracement levels to identify a good support/resistance level to take a trade from.

In the example below, I show you how I combined one big Fibonacci retracement level with 2 other smaller Fibonacci retracement levels (>100%). What we were going for is to play a bounce from a strong area of Fibonacci confluence support.

Combining 3 Fibonacci retracement levels together.

As you can see in the picture below, price went down to touch this strong area of Fibonacci confluence support and bounced nicely.

Combining 1 x Fibonacci Retracements + 2 x Fibonacci Extension.

I find it much easier to find 1 x Fibonacci Retracements and 2 x Fibonacci extension. This also happens to be my favorite style of finding Fibonacci confluence levels. I will teach the topic on identifying Fibonacci extensions in a separate tutorial but the gist of it is that you need to find the starting, middle and ending point (versus just starting and ending for Fibonacci retracement).

In the example below, we can see how we combined 2 Fibonacci extensions (orange and red) along with 1 Fibonacci retracement (teal) to find a strong area of Fibonacci confluence to trade from. What I would do is wait for price to make a push up to that area and when it touches, I would short the market (sell) and play the drop.

How to draw and combine fibonacci retracements and extensions.

Here is what happens when the market touches this strong area of Fibonacci confluence.

Combining Fibonacci retracements and extensions - The result.

Fibonacci Confluence Trading Strategy.

So now that you understand (partially or fully) how Fibonacci confluence works, how do you implement that into your trading strategy?

There are a couple of ways to do this. They mainly revolve around improving your entries, your stop loss, and your take profit placements.

Improving your trade management with Fibonacci Confluence.

When it comes to trading, it’s absolutely crucial you have good trade management. If you use MT4 (MetaTrader 4), then please go check out the Ultimate MT4 Trade Manager we have – please read through all the different parts of trade management on that page along with stop loss and take profit placement best practices.

There is one thing you need to know about stop loss and take profit placement:

Stop-loss = beyond means you should always put your stop loss beyond a key Fibonacci confluence area. The reason for this is because more often than not, price is attracted to such strong areas of Fibonacci confluence and if your stop-loss is right before (instead of beyond) it, you will most likely get stopped out before the market reverses. This is one of the reasons most people wonder why they got stopped- out right when the market starts to reverse (and they start complaining about stop hunting).

Take profit = before means that you should always put your take profit target before a key Fibonacci confluence area. The reason for this is because when price reaches the Fibonacci confluence area, there’s a high chance that it will not be able to go beyond it, and instead of reaching your profit target, it reverses back to your entry (or even worse, your stop loss!). This is also one of the reasons why people complain that the market is being manipulated because they miss their TP (take profit) by 1 pip.

So now that you know how you can use Fibonacci confluence areas to improve your stop loss and take profit placement, the next thing you can consider is how you can use Support and Resistance to improve your entries.

Fibonacci in forex 7

Fibonacci Forex Trading Strategy - Fibonacci Retracement Levels.

'Mastering the time and price advantage' is one way to sum up the art of the Fibonacci Forex trading strategy. But first, it always helps to know some background of where this growingly popular trading method comes from. It all starts with Leonardo Pisano Bogollo, an Italian mathematician, who first introduced the Fibonacci sequence to the West in the 13th century. These strings of numbers contain unique mathematical properties and ratios which can be found - to this very day - in nature, architecture and biology. The wide-ranging presence of these ratios in the Universe also extends to the financial markets. It's just one reason why many traders use a Fibonacci Forex trading strategy to identify turning points in the market, and why you should consider it too. In this online trading education guide segment, we will overview how to use Fibonacci retracement levels effectively in your Forex trading strategy.

Table of Contents.

How Does Fibonacci Work In Trading? Fibonacci Retracement Levels: How To Use Them How To Trade Fibonacci Extension Levels Fibonacci Trading Software and Fibonacci Retracement Indicators How To Use Fibonacci Retracement Tool in MetaTrader Drawing Fibonacci Retracement Levels In an Uptrend Drawing Fibonacci Retracement Levels In a Downtrend How To Trade with Fibonacci Retracement Levels Fibonacci Forex Trading Strategy Conclusion.

In this article, you will learn the unique properties of the Fibonacci sequence in Forex trading, as well as how to use Fibonacci levels across different markets through a Fibonacci Forex trading strategy. You will also learn specific techniques on trading Fibonacci by using Fibonacci retracement levels and Fibonacci extension levels and how to get started on an advanced, free to use Fibonacci Forex trading software. Keep in mind, you always have the option to sign up for a FREE Demo Account with Admirals, where you can test out your knowledge without risking any capital. Let's get started by looking at what the Fibonacci sequence is and how it works in trading.

How Does Fibonacci Work In Trading?

Before we look into the mechanics of Fibonacci trading and how it translates into a Forex Fibonacci trading strategy, it is important to understand the Fibonacci sequence and the unique mathematical properties it provides first.

The Fibonacci sequence is a sequence of numbers where, after 0 and 1, every number is the sum of the two previous numbers. This continues to infinity.

0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584, 4181, 6765….

There are some interesting relationships between these numbers that form the basis of Fibonacci numbers trading. While we cannot cover all of these relationships in this article, below are the most important ones you will need to know about when we look at a Fibonacci Forex trading strategy later on:

If you divide a number by the previous number it will approximate to 1.618. This is used as a key level in Fibonacci extensions as you'll learn later on in the article. If you divide a number by the next highest number it will approximate to 0.618. This number forms the basis for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. If you divide a number by another two places higher it will approximate to 0.382. This number forms the basis for the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

1.618 is known as the Golden Ratio, Golden Mean, or Phi. The inverse of this is 0.618 and both numbers are found throughout nature, biology and in the cosmos. In fact, according to William Hoffner from the Smithsonian Magazine in December 1975: "The proportion of .618034 to 1 is the mathematical basis for the shape of playing cards and the Parthenon, sunflowers and snail shells, Greek vases and the spiral galaxies of outer space. The Greeks based much of their art and architecture upon this proportion."

So, how are the Golden Ratio and other Fibonacci levels used in trading? Firstly, these 'special' numbers are split into Fibonacci retracement levels and Fibonacci extension levels which then provide values where possible turning points could take place in the market. Let's have a look at these in more detail.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels: How To Use Them.

Fibonacci retracement levels help to provide price levels of support and resistance where a reversal in direction could take place and can be used to establish entry levels. The Fibonacci retracement levels are based on the prior move in the market:

After a big rise in price, traders will measure the move from bottom to top to find where price could retrace to before bouncing higher and continuing in the overall trend higher. After a big fall in price, traders will measure the move from top to bottom to find where price could retrace to before correcting lower and continuing in the overall trend lower.

Before we go through how to use Fibonacci trading software and Fibonacci indicators to help identify these retracement levels, it can help to view the pattern visually which is shown below:

Earlier, we calculated the relationship between the Fibonacci sequence to identify some important Fibonacci ratios such as the 0.618 (which forms the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level) and the 0.382 number (which forms the basis of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).

There are also other Fibonacci trading ratios that traders use such as 23.6% and 78.6%, among others. The four listed in the diagrams above are the most commonly used Fibonacci retracement levels.

The buy pattern is used when the market is an uptrend. Traders will attempt to find how far price retraces the X to A move (swing low to swing high) before finding support and bouncing back higher (B). These support levels are the Fibonacci retracement levels and could be a 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8% or 78.6% retracement of the X to A move. The sell pattern is used when the market is in a downtrend. Traders will attempt to find how far price retraces the X to A move (swing high to swing low) before finding resistance and correcting back lower (B). The B point could be any one of the Fibonacci retracement levels already listed.

It is common for traders to use other technical analysis tools such as trading indicators or price action trading patterns for confirmation of which Fibonacci retracement level price may turn. This is covered in more detail later on in the Fibonacci Forex trading strategy section.

If you'd like to learn more about technical tools that can help with identifying Fibonacci retracements, take a look at the webinar below, which covers how to use basic Fibonacci retracements and extensions in MetaTrader 4 and MetaTrader 5.

This webinar is from our Trading Spotlight webinar series where three pro traders offer live sessions three times a week. Just some of the topics they cover include how to do technical analysis, how to identify common chart patterns and trading opportunities and how to implement popular trading strategies such as the Fibonacci Forex trading strategy. To sign up for these complimentary webinars, simply click on the banner below:

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Tune into live webinars hosted by our trading experts.

How To Trade Fibonacci Extension Levels.

Fibonacci extension levels also help to provide price levels of support and resistance but are used to calculate how far price may travel after a retracement is finished. In essence, if Fibonacci retracement levels are used to enter a trend, then Fibonacci extension levels are used to target the end of that trend.

As previously discussed the 1.618 is a key number in the Fibonacci sequence which is why it is called the Golden Ratio. This forms the basis of the most popular Fibonacci extension level - the 161.8% level.

In an uptrend, traders will attempt to enter the 'bounce' at point B and then measure the last Fibonacci retracement from A to B, to find how far the trend could go before reaching point C - the 161.8% level.

In a downtrend, traders will attempt to enter the 'correction' at point B and then measure the last retracement from A to B, to find how far the trend could go before reaching point C - the 161.8% level.

Reversal traders may also use the 161.8% level to enter into counter-trend trades but this is more suited to advanced traders.

So far, you have learnt that Fibonacci retracement levels are used to find support and resistance levels to enter a trade in the direction of the preceding trend. Fibonacci extension levels are used to calculate how far the trend could go before reversing and are used as exit levels.

Now you know what type of visual pattern and cycle, or wave, formations you are looking for - but how do we plot this on the price chart of a market to find entry and exit levels? Your best tool to use in this case is a Fibonacci trading software. Here at Admirals we provide this to our traders for free!

Fibonacci Trading Software and Fibonacci Retracement Indicators.

When using Fibonacci trading software (like our MetaTrader 5 FREE trading platform, pictured below), there are two different types of Fibonacci indicators that can help traders plot retracement and extension levels. All the trader needs to do is measure the X to A cycles as shown in earlier examples and will be explained in more detail in the next few sections.

Once the trader has measured the X to A distance using the Fibonacci tool, the software will then divide the vertical distance by the Fibonacci ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, 78.6%, etc) to plot the Fibonacci levels. This means that you do not need to learn how to calculate Fibonacci retracement and extension levels manually as the software will plot it for you - making it a huge time saver!

An example of the MetaTrader 5 trading platform provided by Admirals showing the price chart of EUR.NZD, a trading ticket window, the Market Watch column, the Toolbox window, the different Fibonacci tools available and an example of Fibonacci retracement levels on price.

Disclaimer: Charts for financial instruments in this article are for illustrative purposes and do not constitute trading advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument provided by Admirals (CFDs, ETFs, Shares). Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.

With the MetaTrader 5 trading platform provided FREE by Admirals, users can access a wide variety of Fibonacci indicators and tools for their Fibonacci Forex trading strategy. It also allows users to access other trading indicators and technical tools and trade directly from the chart - in essence, providing you with an all-in-one trading platform. Admirals offers the following MetaTrader trading platforms which are all free to download:

MetaTrader 4 MetaTrader 5 MetaTrader WebTrader MetaTrader Supreme Edition (A custom plugin for MetaTrader 4 and MetaTrader 5, created by Admirals and professional trading experts)

The MetaTrader 5 trading platform offers traders the ability to trade on multiple asset classes and provides more features than MetaTrader 4 such as a wider range of chart timeframes and styles. To start using the full range of Fibonacci indicators and to follow through the live trading examples in the next few sections, click on the banner below to start your free download.

The World's Premier Multi Asset Platform.

How To Use Fibonacci Retracement Tool in MetaTrader.

Before we look at how to use the Fibonacci retracement tool in your MetaTrader trading platform, let's first set up the correct Fibonacci levels using the following steps:

Open your MetaTrader trading platform provided by Admirals. From the top menu, select Insert -> Objects -> Fibonacci. This will show the following Fibonacci indicators:

3. The Fibonacci retracement tool is used to plot both Fibonacci retracement levels and Fibonacci extension levels. After selecting Fibonacci Retracement, your cursor will change from an arrow to a plus sign with some small horizontal lines beneath it.

4. After you click on the chart then you will find a box pop up which allows you to customise your Fibonacci levels, as shown below:

5. The 'level' column is the Fibonacci ratio derived from the Fibonacci sequence. The 'description' is how it translates into a Fibonacci level for trading. While there are different Fibonacci ratios the most commonly used are:

Level.

Description.

6. Some of these levels and descriptions may not be in your trading platform. To add them, simply click the Add button on the right.

Now let's look at how to plot Fibonacci levels on to your chart and what they actually mean.

Drawing Fibonacci Retracement Levels In an Uptrend.

Find the X to A cycle which is one big cycle, or wave higher. Select the Fibonacci Retracement tool from the top menu: Insert -> Objects -> Fibonacci -> Fibonacci Retracement. Left-click and hold down at the bottom of the cycle, X. While holding the mouse button down, drag the line to the top of the cycle, A. The Fibonacci indicator will automatically draw the Fibonacci retracement levels on, as shown below:

An example of the MetaTrader 5 trading platform provided by Admirals showing Fibonacci retracement levels drawn on using the Fibonacci retracement tool in an uptrend.

Disclaimer: Charts for financial instruments in this article are for illustrative purposes and do not constitute trading advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument provided by Admirals (CFDs, ETFs, Shares). Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.

In the price chart above, the Fibonacci levels are plotted as horizontal lines with the Fibonacci descriptions written on the right side of the chart. You may have noticed that the X level is plotted as 100 and the A level is plotted as 0. This is because if the price retraced from point A all the way back to point X it would be a 100% retracement.

This also means that when price retraces to the 38.2 level - for example - it means that price has retraced 38.2% of the X to A move. In an uptrend, these Fibonacci levels provide areas of support where the market could bounce higher and continue the trend up. In the example above price did indeed find support at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Traders will then look at other technical analysis tools such as price action patterns to find more clues on whether price could bounce at this level.

Drawing Fibonacci Retracement Levels In a Downtrend.

Find the X to A cycle which is one big cycle, or wave lower. Select the Fibonacci Retracement tool from the top menu: Insert -> Objects -> Fibonacci -> Fibonacci Retracement. Left-click and hold down at the top of the cycle, X. While holding the mouse button down, drag the line to the bottom of the cycle, A. The Fibonacci indicator will automatically draw the Fibonacci retracement levels on, as shown below:

An example of the MetaTrader 5 trading platform provided by Admirals showing Fibonacci retracement levels drawn on using the Fibonacci retracement tool in a downtrend.

Disclaimer: Charts for financial instruments in this article are for illustrative purposes and do not constitute trading advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument provided by Admirals (CFDs, ETFs, Shares). Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.

In the price chart above, the Fibonacci levels are plotted as horizontal lines with the Fibonacci descriptions written on the right-side of the chart. You may have noticed that the X level is plotted as 100 and the A level is plotted as 0. This is because if the price retraced from point A all the way back to point X it would be a 100% retracement downtrend. These Fibonacci levels provide areas of resistance where the market could correct lower and continue the trend down. In the example above, price did indeed find resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci level and then correct lower. Typically, traders would look at other technical tools to further confirm the possibility of a correction lower. This will be evident in the next section as we go through a Forex Fibonacci trading strategy.

How To Trade with Fibonacci Retracement Levels.

So far you have learnt that in an uptrend Fibonacci retracement levels can act as a support level where price may bounce and continue moving higher. Conversely, in a downtrend Fibonacci retracement levels can act as a resistance level where price may bounce and correct lower. You have also learnt how to plot these levels using the Fibonacci indicator in the MetaTrader trading platform provided by Admirals, as well as how to use Fibonacci extension levels.

Both Fibonacci retracement levels and Fibonacci extension levels are used by a wide variety of traders covering different trading styles and timeframes, such as long-term trading, intraday trading and swing trading. The levels are also used across different markets such as Forex, Stocks, Indices and Commodities.

While the next section will focus on a Fibonacci Forex trading strategy, you can apply and test the same principles on other asset classes. In fact, with Admirals you can access a wide variety of different asset classes completely risk-free by using a demo trading account. This will also give you the chance to practice and test your Fibonacci trading skills with zero risk! Simply click on the banner below to open a demo account today:

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Fibonacci Forex Trading Strategy.

We have already established that the price of a market can often turn, or find support or resistance, at different Fibonacci levels. Within a Fibonacci Forex trading strategy, traders can go one step further and add in more technical analysis to help confirm whether the market will actually turn or not.

One of the most popular confirmation tools that can help identify whether the price of a market may turn or not is price action analysis. This is the study of candlestick or bar formations on the chart and there are a variety of price action trading patterns traders can choose from. If Fibonacci retracement levels give us the area to buy or sell, then price action trading patterns can help us time when to buy or sell.

Two of the most common types of price action trading patterns are the 'hammer' and 'shooting star' patterns.

The hammer pattern, as shown above, is a bullish signal which signifies the failure of sellers to close the market at a new low and buyers surging back into the market, to close near the high.

The shooting star pattern, as shown above, is the opposite of the hammer pattern. It's a bearish signal which signifies the failure of buyers to close the market at a new high, and sellers surging back into the market, to close near the low.

So how can we use these patterns with Fibonacci levels? Let's take a look at some examples! It is important to note that the following strategy has not been tested historically for its effectiveness but merely serves as a starting point for you to build upon. Traders can take this strategy one step further by experimenting with different technical tools, Fibonacci ratios and markets by learning more in the Admirals Education library.

Uptrend.

Let's start with a simple set of rules for when the market is in an uptrend:

Identify large cycle up (X to A) and draw on Fibonacci retracement levels from the bottom of X to the top of A, using the Fibonacci indicator in the MetaTrader trading platform provided by Admirals. Identify bullish price action trading pattern, such as the 'hammer' pattern at one of the Fibonacci retracement levels.

Both these rules are shown in the example price chart below:

An example of the MetaTrader 5 trading platform provided by Admirals showing Fibonacci retracement levels and the 'hammer' price action pattern, finding support at the 23.6% Fibonacci level.

Disclaimer: Charts for financial instruments in this article are for illustrative purposes and do not constitute trading advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument provided by Admirals (CFDs, ETFs, Shares). Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.

We can also add a third rule on identifying a possible target level for the trade:

3. Use the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level as a price target level by using the Fibonacci retracement tool and measuring from the A to B cycle, as shown below:

An example of the MetaTrader 5 trading platform provided by Admirals showing the Fibonacci extension level 161.8%.

Disclaimer: Charts for financial instruments in this article are for illustrative purposes and do not constitute trading advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument provided by Admirals (CFDs, ETFs, Shares). Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.

In the example above, the price has moved higher from the 'hammer' price action pattern which formed at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. However, it is yet to reach the 161.8% target level. While the trader may want the market to go the target level there is no guarantee it will. In fact, the market - at any time - could reverse the other way and change trend.

This is why risk management and using a stop loss will prove to be beneficial in the long run as it can help to minimise losses.

Downtrend.

Let's start with a simple set of rules for when the market is in a downtrend:

Identify large cycle down (X to A) and draw on Fibonacci retracement levels from the top of X to the bottom of A, using the Fibonacci indicator in the MetaTrader trading platform provided by Admirals. Identify bearish price action trading pattern, such as the 'shooting star' pattern at one of the Fibonacci retracement levels.

Both these rules are shown in the example price chart below:

An example of the MetaTrader 5 trading platform provided by Admirals showing Fibonacci retracement levels and the 'shooting star' price action pattern, finding resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci level.

Disclaimer: Charts for financial instruments in this article are for illustrative purposes and do not constitute trading advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument provided by Admirals (CFDs, ETFs, Shares). Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.

We can also add a third rule on identifying a possible target level for the trade:

3. Use the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level as a price target level by using the Fibonacci retracement tool and measuring from the A to B cycle, as shown below:

An example of the MetaTrader 5 trading platform provided by Admirals showing the Fibonacci extension level 161.8%.

Disclaimer: Charts for financial instruments in this article are for illustrative purposes and do not constitute trading advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument provided by Admirals (CFDs, ETFs, Shares). Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.

In the example above, price did indeed move lower from the 'shooting star' price action pattern which formed at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. In this instance, the price went all the way to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level.

Within the uptrend and downtrend Fibonacci forex trading strategy above, we used a combination of Fibonacci retracement and extension levels and price action. To learn more about different types of strategies and the tools you can add to the above then visit this article on The Best Forex Trading Strategies.

Conclusion.

You should now feel comfortable with what Fibonacci trading is and how to apply Fibonacci Retracement levels using the MetaTrader platform, as well as having a new Forex Fibonacci trading strategy to try out on either on a demo or live account.

There are several other Fibonacci tools available for use with the MetaTrader trading platforms. If you are interested in learning more about these additional tools, including the Fibonacci channel and Fibonacci fan tools, as well as an associated trading strategy for each, then why not have a look at this related article.

Trade Forex with Admirals.

If you're feeling inspired to start trading, or this article has provided some extra insight to your existing trading knowledge, you may be pleased to know that Admirals provides the ability to trade with Forex and other asset classes, with the latest market updates and technical analysis provided for FREE!

Trade Forex & CFDs.

Get access to over 40 CFDs on currency pairs, 24/5.

This material does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or recommendation for any transactions in financial instruments. Please note that such trading analysis is not a reliable indicator for any current or future performance, as circumstances may change over time. Before making any investment decisions, you should seek advice from independent financial advisors to ensure you understand the risks.

Jitanchandra Solanki.

Financial Markets Author, Admirals London.

Jitanchandra is a financial markets author with more than 15 years experience trading currencies, indices and US equities. He is an accredited Market Technician with a BA Hons degree.

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Analisis PESTEL: Metode Analisa Pasar Eksternal Beserta Contohnya.

Analisis PESTEL adalah bagian dari analisa faktor eksternal pasar yang termasuk dalam analisa ancaman dan peluang, analisa ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui sebesar apa peluang atau ancaman pasar yang ada pada wilayah tempat produk tersebut.

Table of Contents.

Pengertian Analisis PESTEL.

Analisis PESTEL (Politic, Economic, Social, Technology, Envirotment, and Legal) adalah analisa yang mengidentifikasi kekuatan makro (eksternal) yang akan mengancam atau memberikan peluang kepada suatu organisasi atau perusahaan. Termasuk faktor politik, ekonomi, sosial, teknologi, lingkungan dan hukum.

Sehingga, analisa ini bergantung pada perusahaan itu sendiri terhadap lingkungannya.

Dalam pemasaran, analisa situasional sangat penting sebelum melakukan strategi pemasaran atau taktik lainnya. Analisa PESTEL merupakan salah satu cara untuk melakukan analisa situasional tersebut.

Gambar 1. manfaat analisa PESTEL.

Perusahaan yang berhasil memantau dan menanggapi perubahan dalam lingkungan makro mampu membedakan dan menciptakan keunggulan yang kompetitif dari pada pesaing. Hasil dari analisa PESTEL adalah sebagai acuan dari analisa kelemahan dan ancaman pada analisa SWOT.

Analisis Pestel merupakan tambahan yang lebih lengkap dari analisis PEST. Hal tersebut karena analisis PEST belum mencakup faktor lingkungan dan hukum.

Analisis PEST adalah analisis terhadap faktor lingkungan eksternal bisnis yang meliputi bidang politik, ekonomi,sosial dan teknologi. Menurut Ward dan Peppard (2002, 70-72)

Apa Analisis PESTEL ?

Analisa PESTEL adalah analisa lingkungan makro yang terdiri dari:

Faktor politik Ekonomi Sosial Teknologi Lingkungan Faktor hukum.

1. Faktor Politik.

Faktor politik pada analisa PESTEL melihat bagaimana dan sampai sejauh mana campur tangan pemerintah dalam kegiatan perekonomian. Hal tersebut dapat mencakup kebijakan pemerintah, stabilitas politik atau ketidakstabilan di pasar luar negeri, kebijakan perdagangan luar negeri, kebijakan pajak, undang-undang ketenagakerjaan, hukum lingkungan, pembatasan perdagangan dan sebagainya.

Baca Juga: istilah marketing mix dalam manajemen pemasaran meliputi.

Sehingga faktor-faktor politik berdampak pada perusahaan/pelaku bisnis dan bagaimana mereka melakukan bisnis. Perusahaan/ Pelaku bisnis harus dapat menanggapi undang-undang saat ini dan yang akan datang, dan menyesuaikan kebijakan pemasarannya.

Gambar 2. faktor politik akan mempengaruhi perilaku pembelian.

Contoh analisis PESTEL dari faktor politik.

Adanya virus covid 19 ini menimbulkan banyak masalah yang sulit teratasi, apalagi jika kita melihat pada bagaimana virus ini sangat cepat berkembang.

Tentu saja hal ini berdampak besar pada perekonomian, salah satunya pemerintah harus membatasi kegiatan impor dari negara yang paling banyak tercemar virus ini.

Contohnya adalah pembatasan impor pangan produk susu susuan dari China.

Sebab adanya kebijakan tersebut banyak perusahaan pangan yang mengandalkan pasokan produk/ bahan susu susuan dari china harus segera mencari alternatif bahan dan bahkan hingga menimbulkan potensi tidak dapat melakukan produksi.

Akibatnya perusahaan merugi dan banyaknya perusahaan yang me’rumah’kan karyawannya.

2. Faktor Ekonomi.

Faktor-faktor ekonomi memiliki dampak signifikan pada bagaimana suatu perusahaan/ pelaku bisnis melakukan bisnis dan juga seberapa menguntungkan mereka. faktor ekonomi termasuk – pertumbuhan ekonomi, suku bunga, nilai tukar, inflasi, pendapatan konsumen dan bisnis dan sebagainya.

Faktor-faktor ini selanjutnya dapat kita pecah menjadi faktor makro-ekonomi dan mikro-ekonomi.

Kemudian, faktor ekonomi makro berhubungan dengan manajemen permintaan dalam setiap ekonomi. Sehingga, pemerintah menggunakan kontrol suku bunga, kebijakan perpajakan dan pengeluaran pemerintah sebagai mekanisme utama yang mereka gunakan untuk ini.

Sedangkan faktor mikro-ekonomi berhubungan dengan cara orang membelanjakan pendapatannya. Hal ini memiliki dampak yang sangat besar pada organisasi B2C khususnya.

3. Faktor Sosial.

Faktor sosial juga dikenal sebagai faktor sosial-budaya. Faktor-faktor ini termasuk – pertumbuhan populasi, usia, kesadaran kesehatan, karier dan sebagainya.

Faktor-faktor ini sangat menarik karena mereka memiliki efek langsung pada bagaimana pemasar memahami konsumen dan apa yang mendorong mereka tertarik akan suatu produk.

4. Faktor Teknologi.

Teknologi adalah sesuatu yang kerap kali berubah dan hal ini akan sangat berdampak pada cara seorang pemasar/ pelaku bisnis melakukan penjualan. Faktor teknologi memengaruhi pemasaran dan manajemennya dalam tiga cara berbeda:

Cara baru menghasilkan barang dan jasa. Cara baru mendistribusikan barang dan jasa. Cara-cara baru berkomunikasi dengan target pasar.

Baca Juga: Kegiatan Manajemen Pemasaran Di Perusahaan dan Organisasi.

5. Faktor Lingkungan.

Faktor lingkungan berhubungan dengan meningkatnya kelangkaan bahan baku dan polusi. Lingkungan dan pemasaran terhubung di mana pemasaran dapat mempengaruhi lingkungan ketika melayani konsumen dengan produk dan layanan yang ada.

Sehingga akan adanya tekanan dari pemerintah dan orang-orang untuk mengurangi limbah yang dihasilkan.

6. Faktor Hukum.

Faktor hukum meliputi – kesehatan dan keselamatan, peluang yang setara, standar periklanan, hak dan hukum konsumen, pelabelan produk dan keamanan produk. Jelas bahwa perusahaan/ pemasar perlu mengetahui apa yang legal dan apa yang tidak legal agar dapat berdagang dengan sukses.

Jika suatu perusahaan berdagang secara internasional, hal ini menjadi bidang yang sangat sulit untuk dilakukan karena setiap negara memiliki aturan dan peraturan sendiri.

Contoh analisis PESTEL dari faktor hukum.

Gambar 3. Akibat melanggar regulasi negara ekspor.

Regulasi setiap negara berbeda-beda, termasuk regulasi dari bahan apa saja yang diizinkan untuk ada pada produk yang kita jual. Misalnya adalah negara kita membolehkan MSG sebagai bahan baku makanan. Akan tetapi negara Jepang melarag MSG (Ini hanya permisalan ya).

Apa yang terjadi ketika kita melakukan ekspor produk ke negara tersebut ? yang mana produk kita mengandung MSG.

Hal yang mungkin terjadi adalah produk tersebut akan tertahan di negara tersebut dan kemungkinan akan dimusnahkan. Tentu saja hal tersebut akan membuat banyak kerugian pada perusahaan.

Baca juga: 1. Cara melakukan analisa SWOT 2. langkah melakukan analisa STP.

Contoh Analisis Pestel Carrefour (Bisnis Retail)

Analisis Pestel Carrefour.

Menurut data dari wikipedia, Carrefour adalah perusahaan ritel terbesar ke-dua setelah Wal Mart. Yang dibuka pertama kali pada 3 Juni 1957 (sumber: Wikipedia). Hingga saat ini Carrefour menjadi salah satu pilihan utama keluarga untuk berbelanja kebutuhan rumah tangga. Tapi disituasi wabah COVID 19 ini, bagaimana keadaan carrefour ? apakah bisa menghadapi situasi pasar saat ini ?. Mari kita coba analisis eksternal PESTEL.

Jawaban Analisa PESTEL.

Faktor Politik.

Bukan rahasia lagi jika keadaan politik di Indonesia masih panas. Walaupun pilpres sudah usai, namun masalah politik di area internal masih saja gaduh. Hal ini dapat menyebabkan kerugian bagi bisnis ritel, tak terkecuali carrefour. Dengan adanya wabah ini, tidak ada jaminan pemerintah dapat memberikan kebijakan yang dapat segera meningkatkan daya beli masyarakat.

Baca Juga: Target Pemasaran: Pengertian, Proses, Manfaat dalam Pemasaran.

Faktor Ekonomi.

Adanya wabah COVID 19 menyebabkan banyaknya perusahaan khususnya start up ke bawah mengalami gulung tikar. Akibatnya PHK massal terjadi dimana-mana. Menurut kementerian ketenagakerjaan sekitar 2 juta orang terkena PHK dan dirumahkan. Hal ini tentu secara signifikan menurunkan daya beli masyarakat.

Faktor Sosial.

Faktor sosial masyarakat akibat wabah corona menyebabkan sisi positif terhadap pribadi yaitu lebih menjaga kesehatan dan berhati-hati. Namun, hal ini justru menjadi negatif terhadap bisnis ritel. Yaitu, dikarenakan sifat kehati-hatian dan kebijakan social distancing menyebabkan bisnis riteil lesu pembeli.

Faktor Teknologi.

Dengan pesatnya pertumbuhan digital dan adanya wabah corona, menggeser secara paksa penjualan offline menjadi online. Hal ini membuat bisnis retail offline menjadi kurang diminati. Akan tetapi hal ini juga menjadi peluang besar bagi bisnis retail untuk melakukan inovasi dalam penjualan online. Carrefour salah satunya. Mereka meluncurkan layanan pesan antar Home Delivery (THD) yang dapat diakses melalui website. Sehingga konsumen akan menerima pesanan mereka dirumah.

Faktor Lingkungan.

Yes, analisis faktor lingkungan ini pun sama. Lagi-lagi karena wabah corona menyebabkan hampir semua sektor bisnis menjadi lesu hingga gulug tikar.

Faktor Hukum.

Bisnis retail mendapatkan kemudahan dalam pendiriannya. Sebelumnya pendirian toko ritel harus memenuhi syarat Rencana Tata Ruang dan Wilayah (RTRW), Rencana Detail Tata Ruang (RDTR), dan Peraturan Zonasi. Namun, dalam revisi Peraturan Presiden (Perpres) no. 112 tahun 2007 tentang penataan, pembinaan padar tradisional, pusat perbelanjaan, dan toko modern aturan tersebut ditiadakan. Hanya saja dikarenakan wabah corona walaupun mendapatkan kemudahan dari segi hukum, tapi jika daya beli masyarakat menurun hal ini tetap akan menyusahkan bisnis retail.

Kesimpulan – Analisis PESTEL dan Contohnya.

Analisis PESTEL adalah analisa yang sangat penting dilakukan para pelaku bisnis khususnya bagi perusahaan yang baru terjun dan tidak mengetahui kondisi pasar dilapangan (misalnya ketika menjual produk ke luar negeri alias perusahaan ekspor) sehingga hal tersebut dapat meminimalisir tingkat kegagalan produk/layanan atau pun menghilangkan kerugian besar yang mungkin terjadi.

Baca Juga Artikel Mengenai :

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Fibonacci in forex 6

How to trade with Fibonacci.

Fibonacci retracements are a popular form of technical analysis used by traders in order to predict future potential prices in the financial markets. If used correctly, Fibonacci retracements and ratios can help traders to identify upcoming support and resistance​ levels based on past price action.

It’s important to remember that Fibonacci lines are a confirmation tool. For this reason, the indicator is best used alongside other technical analysis tools such as trend lines, volume, moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and moving averages. Generally speaking, the greater the number of confirming indicators, the stronger the trade signal is likely to be.

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What is Fibonacci in trading?

Leonardo Fibonacci was a mathematician born in 1170 AD. From his work, we get the Fibonacci sequence of numbers, and also the well-known Fibonacci golden ratio. The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers where the next number is simply the sum of the two preceding numbers. So for example, it would run 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 and so on, with the sequence continuing indefinitely.

It is based on the rate of reproduction of two theoretical rabbits and the subsequent population growth if the following generations continued to reproduce. At first glance, it may seem somewhat confusing to find that there is a connection between a 12th century mathematician, the rate at which rabbits reproduce and predicting the future direction of the financial markets using technical analysis​. So, why is this series of numbers so important for traders?

Fibonacci's golden ratio.

The focus tends to be on the ratio between the numbers in the sequence. This is considered to be the most important part of Fibonacci's work. Any number in the series divided by the previous number gives us 1.618 as we get further down the series. This is known as the 'Fibonacci golden ratio'. For Fibonacci followers, there are plenty of examples in nature adhering to this ratio (or the inverse of the number, 0.618). It seems to have played an enormous part in the building blocks of everything around us.​

For example, if you divide the number of female bees by male bees in a hive, you will get 1.618 as the answer. For sunflowers, each new seed is 0.618 of a turn from the last one. Fibonacci also applies to humans as well. There are lots of instances of this golden ratio working in relation to our bodies: one example is the ratio of the length of your forearm to your hand, which is 1.618.

Fibonacci’s golden ratio example.

In financial markets, the Fibonacci golden ratio has the same mathematical base as the natural phenomena mentioned above. When traders use the golden ratio in their technical analysis, the ratio is usually translated into three percentages: 38.2% (often rounded to 38%), 50% and 61.8% (usually rounded to 62%). Having said that, traders can use more multiples when necessary, such as: 23.6%, 161.8%, 423%, 684.4% and so on.

The 38.2% ratio is found by dividing one number in the series by the number two places to the right. For example, 21 divided by 55 equals 0.382. The 23.6% ratio divides one number in the series by the number three places to the right. For example, 8 divided by 34 equals 0.235.

Fibonacci retracement levels.

The argument of Fibonacci followers is: if so much of nature and the world is made up of these Fibonacci ratios, surely the same would apply to the markets too? Analysts can use this approach when learning to trade Fibonacci through its retracements. Let's say for example that a market has risen and, similar to all markets, it doesn't move in a straight line and starts to fall back. Traders will look at Fibonacci ratios to try and figure out where the fall may stop and the market will resume its previous rise.

Fibonacci retracement levels often mark retracement reversal points with surprising accuracy. The retracement levels are a powerful tool that can be applied to all timeframes, including day trading​ and long-term investing. Fibonacci numbers also play a crucial role in the Elliott Wave​ principle, a technical analysis tool used to identify market cycles. The tool can be used across many different asset classes, such as foreign exchange, shares, commodities and indices.

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What is the Fibonacci sequence?

The golden ratio of 1.618 – the magic number – gets translated into three percentages: 23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8%. These are the three most popular percentages, although some traders will also look at the 50% and 76.4% levels. 50% is not a Fibonacci number, but has proved to be a generally popular number when correcting a primary or secondary price move. For now, we will focus on the 50% and the two more popular Fibonacci percentages of 38.2% and 61.8%.

These are then applied to the chart to try and figure out potential hidden levels of support or resistance in the market. When the market drops back to 38.2% of its previous rise (the first major Fibonacci retracement), traders will check to see if any buyers come in. If this 38.2% level gets broken, then the expectation is for the 50% retracement to be the next target. If the market slides through that 50% retracement level, then traders will look to see if the market finally stops its decline when it has retraced 61.8% of the prior move. For most Fibonacci followers, if it breaks through that 61.8% level, it means that the market direction is going back to where it started.

We can create Fibonacci retracements by taking a peak and trough (or two extreme points) on a chart and dividing the vertical distance by the above key Fibonacci ratios. Once these trading patterns​ are identified, horizontal lines can be drawn and then used to identify possible support and resistance levels.

What is the Fibonacci sequence used for?

The Fibonacci sequence and golden ratio appear frequently in nature, biology, architecture and fine art. It is seen in flower petals, tree branches, human DNA and population growth. The golden ratio and other Fibonacci ratios are also often found in the financial markets​, and they form the foundation of the Fibonacci retracement tool.

How to use Fibonacci retracements in trading.

Fibonacci retracement lines can be created when you divide the vertical distance between the high and low points by the key Fibonacci ratios. Horizontal lines are drawn on the trading chart​​ at the 23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels. Some traders also like to use the 50.0% ratio. This is not really a Fibonacci ratio, but it can be useful. Often a security will retrace by around 50% before continuing its original trend. Charting software has simplified the process of drawing Fibonacci lines. Many trading platforms​ enable traders to plot Fibonacci lines. In an upward trend, you can select the Fibonacci line tool, select the low price and drag the cursor up to the high price. The indicator will mark key ratios such as 61.8%, 50.0% and 38.2% on the chart. Similarly, in a downward trend, you can select the Fibonacci line tool, choose the high price and drag the cursor down to the low price. The indicator will mark key ratios on the chart. To improve accuracy, traders can also use double tops or double bottoms as the high and low points.

Fibonacci in forex 5

How to Use Fibonacci Retracements.

Fibonacci retracement levels are horizontal lines that indicate the possible support and resistance levels where price could potentially reverse direction.

The first thing you should know about the Fibonacci tool is that it works best when the market is trending .

The idea is to go long (or buy) on a retracement at a Fibonacci support level when the market is trending UP.

And to go short (or sell) on a retracement at a Fibonacci resistance level when the market is trending DOWN.

Fibonacci retracement levels are considered a predictive technical indicator since they attempt to identify where price may be in the future.

The theory is that after price begins a new trend direction, the price will retrace or return partway back to a previous price level before resuming in the direction of its trend.

Finding Fibonacci Retracement Levels.

In order to find these Fibonacci retracement levels, you have to find the recent significant Swing Highs and Swings Lows.

Then, for downtrends, click on the Swing High and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing Low.

For uptrends, do the opposite. Click on the Swing Low and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing High.

Now, let’s take a look at some examples of how to apply Fibonacci retracement levels to the currency markets.

Uptrend.

This is a daily chart of AUD/USD .

Here we plotted the Fibonacci retracement levels by clicking on the Swing Low at .6955 on April 20 and dragging the cursor to the Swing High at .8264 on June 3.

Tada! The charting software automagically calculates and shows you the retracement levels.

As you can see from the chart, the Fibonacci retracement levels were .7955 (23.6%), .7764 (38.2%), .7609 (50.0%*), .7454 (61.8%), and .7263 (76.4%).

Now, the expectation is that if AUD/USD retraces from the recent high, it will find support at one of those Fibonacci retracement levels because traders will be placing buy orders at these levels as the price pulls back.

*The 50.0% ratio is not officially a Fibonacci ratio, but it was able to sneak into the group and has never left.

Now, let’s look at what happened after the Swing High occurred.

Price pulled back right through the 23.6% level and continued to shoot down over the next couple of weeks.

It even tested the 38.2% level but was unable to close below it.

Later on, around July 14, the market resumed its upward move and eventually broke through the swing high.

Clearly, buying at the 38.2% Fibonacci level would have been a profitable long-term trade!

Downtrend.

Now, let’s see how we would use the Fibonacci retracement tool during a downtrend. Below is a 4-hour chart of EUR/USD .

As you can see, we found our Swing High at 1.4195 on January 25 and our Swing Low at 1.3854 a few days later on February 1.

The retracement levels are 1.3933 (23.6%), 1.3983 (38.2%), 1.4023 (50.0%), 1.4064 (61.8%) and 1.4114 (76.4%).

The expectation for a downtrend is that if the price retraces from this low, it could possibly encounter resistance at one of the Fibonacci levels because traders who want to play the downtrend at better prices may be ready with sell orders there.

Let’s take a look at what happened next.

Yowza! Isn’t that a thing of beauty?!

The market did try to rally, and stalled below the 38.2% level for a bit before testing the 50.0% level.

If you had some orders either at the 38.2% or 50.0% levels, you would’ve made some mad pips on that trade.

In these two examples, we see that price found some temporary forex support or resistance at Fibonacci retracement levels.

Because of all the people who use the Fibonacci tool, those levels become self-fulfilling support and resistance levels.

If enough market participants believe that a retracement will occur near a Fibonacci retracement level and are waiting to open a position when the price reaches that level, then all those pending orders could impact the market price.

One thing you should take note of is that price won’t always bounce from these levels. They should be looked at as areas of interest ,

For now, there’s something you should always remember about using the Fibonacci tool and it’s that they are not always simple to use!

If they were that simple, traders would always place their orders at Fibonacci retracement levels and the markets would trend forever.

In the next lesson, we’ll show you what can happen when Fibonacci retracement levels FAIL.