Noticias de Forex.
The EUR/USD pair has displayed a corrective move after failing to extend the upside range above the crucial resistance of 1.0760. The major currency p.
EUR/USD is looking to recapture 1.0760 as the overall risk profile is still positive. Only the stronger-than-projected US CPI report could avoid certain fresh lows for USD Index. The speech from Fed Powell will provide cues about the likely monetary policy action for the February meeting.
The EUR/USD pair has displayed a corrective move after failing to extend the upside range above the crucial resistance of 1.0760. The major currency pair has not shown any meaningful sign of bearish reversal, therefore, it would not be ideal to place bearish bids on EUR/USD for now. Investors are required to keep caution in the overall bullish environment as risk-sensitive assets have already displayed a strong run-up, which could force investors to ease their longs ahead.
S&P500 ended on a marginal weak note as Goldman Sachs announced the biggest lay-offs since the subprime crisis as Wall Street banks have suffered a major slowdown in corporate deal-making activity as a result of volatile global financial markets, as reported by Bloomberg. Meanwhile, a decline in 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.53% also weighed pressure on the US Dollar Index (DXY) pushing it to near 102.20, a fresh seven-month low figure.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is subjected to continue making fresh lows as a meaningful drop in economic activities in the United States economy and a one-time significant drop in wage inflation has accelerated expectations of a deceleration in the pace of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the economists at MUFG Bank, only a stronger-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday would avoid a slide to fresh lows for the USD Index.
But before the release of the US CPI report, the speech from Fed chair Jerome Powell will provide more clarity on monetary policy action for the December meeting.
On the Eurozone front, Economic Bulletin published by the European Central Bank (ECB) clears that wage growth is going to be extremely solid ahead led by robust labor markets that so far have not been substantially affected by the economic slowdown, increases in national minimum wages and some catch-up between wages and high rates of inflation.
01:02 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Stalls at the 200-DMA, eyeing a re-test on its way to 92.00.
The AUD/JPY edged up during Monday’s session, though it faltered to clear the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 91.66, retracing from th.
AUD/JPY tested but failed to clear solid resistance around the 100 and 200-day EMAs. AUD/JPY Price Analysis: A break above 91.70 could open the door for additional gains.
The AUD/JPY edged up during Monday’s session, though it faltered to clear the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 91.66, retracing from the daily highs, and aimed toward January 4 highs around 90.88. As Tuesday’s Asian Pacific session begins, the AUD/JPY is trading with minuscule gains of 0.01%, at around 91.11.
AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook.
AUD/JPY Monday’s price action witnessed the formation of an inverted hammer preceded by a slight uptrend after the AUD/JPY bottomed at around 87.40s, forming a double bottom. Albeit AUD sellers pushed exchange rates toward’s 91.05, they failed to achieve a daily close beneath that price level, which would have opened the door for further losses and invalidated the chart pattern.
However, the AUD/JPY might consolidate in the near term and depend on market sentiment and Aussie (AUD) upbeat news. So if the AUD/JPY is to resume its uptrend, it would need to decisively reclaim the 100 and 200-day EMAs at around 91.57 and 91.66, respectively, which, once cleared, could open the door for further gains.
If that scenario plays out, the AUD/JPY first resistance would be 92.00. A breach of the latter will send the cross rallying toward December’s 13 daily high of 93.35, followed by the 94.00 figure and the 95.00 mark.
AUD/JPY Key Technical Levels.
01:00 South Korea Current Account Balance registered at -0.62B, below expectations (-0.17B) in November.
South Korea Current Account Balance registered at -0.62B, below expectations (-0.17B) in November.
00:57 NZD/USD retreats towards 0.6350 with eyes on Fed Chair Powell.
NZD/USD fades upside momentum after two-day advances as it drops to 0.6370 during early Tuesday’s Asian session. The Kiwi pair previously rose to the .
NZD/USD eases from three-week high, snaps two-day uptrend. Hawkish Fedspeak, lack of fresh positives from China probe Kiwi bulls. Powell’s speech will be crucial ahead of Thursday’s US inflation as NZD/USD is susceptible to Fed wagers.
NZD/USD fades upside momentum after two-day advances as it drops to 0.6370 during early Tuesday’s Asian session. The Kiwi pair previously rose to the highest level in three weeks as headlines surrounding China and the US data helped the NZD/USD bulls. However, recent comments from the Fed officials and the cautious mood ahead of this week’s key data and events seem to challenge the pair buyers.
That said, softer US data concerning the wage growth and ISM Services PMI for December, raised speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) finally has an upper hand in taming inflation, suggesting a pause to aggressive rate hikes, which in turn propelled NZD/USD prices.
However, hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers seemed to have challenged the NZD/USD traders. On Monday, Atlanta Federal Reserve bank president Raphael Bostic said that it is ''fair to say that the Fed is willing to overshoot.'' On the same line, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly stated that they are determined, united, resolute to bring inflation down.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations showed on Monday that the US consumers' one-year inflation expectation declined to 5% in December from 5.2% prior. Alternatively, the three-year ahead expected inflation remained unchanged at 3% and the five-year ahead expected inflation edged higher to 2.4% from 2.3%.
Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped five basis points to 3.51% while printing the three-day downtrend whereas Wall Street closed mixed.
Moving on, the economic calendar appears light ahead of Thursday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December. However, today’s Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech will be crucial for the NZD/USD traders to watch for clear directions amid receding hawkish bias for the Fed. Should Powell refrains from conveying hawkish bias, the NZD/USD could refresh the multi-day high.
Technical analysis.
Despite the recent pullback, the NZD/USD pair’s capacity to stay beyond the 21-DMA support of 0.6330 keeps buyers hopeful.
00:35 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles below $1,900 on mixed Federal Reserve talks.
Gold price (XAU/USD) seems running out of upside momentum as it retreats to $1,871, after renewing the multi-day high amid the mostly quiet week-start.
Gold price retreats after refreshing eight-month high, lacks follow through. Federal Reserve officials tried to defend US Dollar and probed XAU/USD bulls. China-linked optimism, previous United Stated data allowed Gold price to stay firmer. Light calendar ahead of US, China Inflation can restrict immediate XAU/USD moves.
Gold price (XAU/USD) seems running out of upside momentum as it retreats to $1,871, after renewing the multi-day high amid the mostly quiet week-start trading. That said, the United States economics and China’s reopening appeared to have previously helped the XAU/USD to rise to the highest level since May 2022. However, comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials appear to challenge the Gold bulls afterwards.
Federal Reserve talks probe Gold buyers.
Last week’s United States economics, mainly concerning the wage growth and ISM Services PMI for December, raised speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) finally has an upper hand in taming inflation, suggesting a pause to aggressive rate hikes. The same weighed on the US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar even as the latest comments from the Fed officials restrict the Greenback’s latest downside.
That said, Atlanta Federal Reserve bank president Raphael Bostic said on Monday that it is ''fair to say that the Fed is willing to overshoot.'' On the same line, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly stated that they are determined, united, resolute to bring inflation down. Additionally, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations showed on Monday that the US consumers' one-year inflation expectation declined to 5% in December from 5.2% prior. Alternatively, the three-year ahead expected inflation remained unchanged at 3% and the five-year ahead expected inflation edged higher to 2.4% from 2.3%.
Hence, the Federal Reserve officials’ defense of the hawkish monetary policy actions weighs on the Gold prices.
China favors XAU/USD bulls amid a light calendar.
China’s reopening of the international borders after a three-year of halt joined the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) quest for more Gold reserve to underpin the XAU/USD upside the previous day. The reason could be linked to the dragon nation’s status as one of the world’s biggest gold consumers. That said, Beijing’s readiness for stimulus and early signals of shopping spree ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday season also seemed to have favored the Gold’s upside. It’s worth noting that a lack of major data and events from elsewhere also allowed Chinese catalysts to gain major attention.
Fed talks, United States inflation in focus.
Moving on, Gold traders are likely to witness further hardships amid a lack of major catalysts ahead of Thursday’s United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December. However, comments from the various Federal Reserve (Fed) officials may offer intermediate moves. That said, the latest pullback in the XAU/USD could gain strength should the US inflation arrive as stronger and/or Fed talks appear too hawkish.
Gold price technical analysis.
Gold buyers managed to poke the June 2022 high surrounding $1,880 while extending the bounce off one-month-old horizontal support the previous day. However, nearly overbought conditions of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14, joined an upward-sloping trend line from December 27 to restrict the metal’s further upside.
Also challenging the XAU/USD buyers was the receding bullish bias of the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator.
As a result, Gold’s pullback towards the previous weekly top surrounding $1,865 appears imminent.
However, a fortnight-long ascending support line, close to $1,838 by the press time, could challenge the XAU/USD sellers afterward.
In a case where the Gold price fails to rebound from $1,838, the aforementioned horizontal support near $1,823 and the 100-Simple Moving Average (SMA) level surrounding $1,818 will gain the market’s attention.
Alternatively, the $1,880 level and ascending trend line from early December 2022, around $1,883 restricts short-term upside of the Gold price.
Following that, highs marked during May 2022 and late April, close to $1,910 and $1,920 in that order, could challenge the Gold buyers.
Gold price: Four-hour chart.
Trend: Pullback expected.
00:33 USD/CAD Price Analysis: Downside looks solid to near 1.3400 ahead of Powell/Macklem’s speech.
The USD/CAD pair has shifted its auction profile below the critical resistance of 1.3400 in the early Asian session. The Lonnie asset is displaying a .
USD/CAD has gauged an intermediate cushion of around 1.3350. Volatility is likely to contract ahead of Powell/Macklem’s speech. Downward-sloping 20-and 50-EMAs add to the downside filters.
The USD/CAD pair has shifted its auction profile below the critical resistance of 1.3400 in the early Asian session. The Lonnie asset is displaying a sideways profile after finding an immediate cushion below 1.3400 post carnage led by risk-on market mood. A continuation of rangebound structure is highly expected ahead of the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell and Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is displaying a subdued performance after a massive sell-off. An absence of follow-up recovery despite gauging an immediate cushion indicates more downside ahead. Meanwhile, a failure in the extension of S&P’s rally resulted in a corrective move, portraying a caution in the risk appetite theme.
After a breakdown of stretched consolidation formed in a range of 1.3482-1.3702 on a four-hour, USD/CAD has dropped dramatically to near 1.3350. The range expansion on the south side is expected to continue further as the overall market sentiment is still positive.
Declining 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 1.3482 and 1.3518 respectively, add to the downside filters.
Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bearish range of the 20.00-40.00 range, which indicates that a bearish momentum has been activated.
For further downside, the Canadian Dollar needs to push the Loonie asset below Monday’s low of around 1.3350, which will drag the major towards November 18 low at 1.3300 followed by November 15 low at 1.3226.
On the contrary, a break above December 27 low of around 1.3484 will strengthen the US Dollar and will drive the major towards December 8 low at 1.3561. A breach of the latter will expose the asset for further upside towards January 6 high at 1.3664.
USD/CAD four-hour chart.
00:21 USD/JPY Price Analysis: Seesawed around 131.90s on mixed mood.
The USD/JPY is almost flat as Monday’s New York session wanes, printing a doji preceded by a bearish engulfing candle pattern that failed to trigger d.
USD/JPY falters to extend its downtrend after forming a bearish engulfing candle pattern. The RSI and the RoC suggest that the USD/JPY might resume downwards, though it needs the USD/JPY to fall below 131.30.
The USD/JPY is almost flat as Monday’s New York session wanes, printing a doji preceded by a bearish engulfing candle pattern that failed to trigger downward action. The USD/JPY dived as low as 131.30, still almost unchanged, down by 0.17%. At the time of typing, the USD/JPY is trading at 131.88.
USD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook.
After testing the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around 134.70s on Friday, the USD/JPY remained almost unchanged as risk appetite improved and safe-haven peers weakened. Therefore, the USD/JPY seesawed between the high/low of 132.65-131.30 before stabilizing around 131.80s, without buyers/sellers having the upper hand. Should be said that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) portrays the pair as bearish biased, though the Rate of Change (RoC) shows momentum heading downwards.
Hence, the USD/JPY might resume its downtrend, but it would need to hurdle some support levels on its way down. The USD/JPY first support would be the January 9 daily low of 131.30. Break below will expose the 131.00 figure, followed by the January 4 swing low of 129.92 and the YTD low of 129.50.
USD/JPY Key Technical Levels.
00:06 AUD/USD drops to near 0.6900 as risk-on eases, focus shifts to Fed Powell’s speech.
The AUD/USD pair has sensed solid barricades while attempting to extend a rally above the critical resistance of 0.6950 in the New York session. The A.
AUD/USD has corrected to near 0.6900 as investors have turned cautious ahead of Fed Powell’s speech. The USD Index is expected to continue its downside momentum as the overall sentiment is still solid. Australia’s monthly CPI and Retail Sales data will be keenly watched.
The AUD/USD pair has sensed solid barricades while attempting to extend a rally above the critical resistance of 0.6950 in the New York session. The Aussie asset has corrected to near 0.6900 as a firmer rally is generally followed by a healthy correction, therefore, it would be ideal not to consider the correction a bearish reversal.
Optimism in the global market eased vigorously as investors are shifting their focus toward the release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is scheduled for Thursday. S&P500 witnessed a corrective move on late Monday after a stretch of Friday’s solid rally, portraying a caution in the overall upbeat market mood.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has gauged immediate support above 102.50, however, an absence of follow-up recovery indicates that more steam is still left in USD Index bears. Meanwhile, the demand for US government bonds remained solid, which led to a further drop in the 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.53%.
Investors are shifting their focus toward the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell, which is scheduled for Tuesday. The speech from Fed Powell will provide cues about the likely monetary policy to be taken in February’s monetary policy meeting. Apart from that, fresh projections on the terminal rate after a slowdown in economic activities in the United States economy and a drop in wage inflation will be of utmost importance.
On the Aussie front, the Australian Dollar will remain in action ahead of the release of the monthly CPI data, which is scheduled for Wednesday. As per the consensus, the annual CPI (Nov) will escalate to 7.3% vs. the prior release of 6.9%. Also, the Australian Retail Sales data will hog the limelight, which is seen higher at 0.7% against the former figure of -0.2%.
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