June 2016

Weekly analysis- Forex Fundamental Analysis – Brent: the second wave of correction

The forecast for the week 20 - 24 of June:

XAU/USD:

The last three trading weeks, gold has been finishing in the "green zone" on the background of outflow of capital from risky assets. Brexit may happen as early as this Thursday and then we can see it on $1,400 /ounce. Otherwise, we can expect a strong decline of gold. How to trade in this case? As uncertainty is very high, it is reasonable to wait for results of voting in UK and then open trading positions. Whatever the outcome will be, the market respond will be very strong and long-lasted, and every trader can capitalize on this event. However, if the United Kingdom remains to be the part of EU, sales of gold will be stronger, because in recent years it has been at high levels.

Trading recommendations:

Buy if the Great Britain leaves the EU on June 23 with Take Profit set at 30$.

Sell, f the Great Britain если Великобритания останется в Е.С remains in the EU on June 23 with Take Profit set at 50$.

Brent:

The the price has finished first wave of a downward correction started from the seven months' High. This week we should expect a second wave of correction. The main driver of drop is the expectations on growth of production in the United States. Friday's release of oil service company Baker Hughes disappointed investors one more time. The number of drilling rigs in the USA increased by 9 units, which indicates an increase of production volume. This trend has grounds, the number of drilling rigs has been growing for three weeks in a row - by 21 units. It is impossible to ignore decline in Baltic Dry Index (this index reflects the demand in the sea freight through the price costs of logistics), which indicates lack of strong demand in the raw materials. This index is one of the most objective indicators of economic activity. So, business activity in the world is still low and therefore, increase in the oil production volume would affect the price black gold.This week we should open Sell positions on growth of quotations to​​50.00/51.00 and take profit at 47.50.

S&P500:

This week can be divided into the two parts. First, this is announcement of results of the UK voting, the second part will be thetime after the referendum. In the first period, we should expect a moderate decline of the price. At the press conference after the Fed's meeting J Yellen said that the risk of UK exit was one of the key factors determining the decision not to raise the interest rate. However, the head of FED added that the Committee can easily respond to the unexpected acceleration of inflation and raise the rate! Core CPI has been above 2% for six months in a row and the trend remains to be fairly stable. Investors are choosing"safe assets", which is a negative factor for the stock market. The past week, fear index S&P500 VIX rose by 13.9% and last month increase was 18.8%. Investors are scared because of Brexit and are getting rid of risky assets. In the second period, trading will be determined by outcome of the referendum: if the UK leaves EU, a new wave of sales will start, if voting results save UK in the EU, we will see a strong upward movement. This week we should open Sell positions on growth of quotations to 2078/2089 and take profit at 2055.

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Stocks. Daily history for Jun 21’2016:

(index / closing price / change items /% change) Nikkei 225 16,169.11 +203.81 +1.28 % Hang Seng 20,668.44 +158.24 +0.77 % S&P/ASX 200 5,274.36 +17.60 +0.33 % Shanghai Composite 2,878.9 -9.91 -0.34 % FTSE 100 6,226.55 +22.55 +0.36 %... [...]

Currencies. Daily history for Jun 21’2016:

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %) EUR/USD $1,1249 -0,55% GBP/USD $1,4660 -0,09% USD/CHF Chf0,9622 +0,05% USD/JPY Y104,76 +0,76% EUR/JPY Y117,85 +0,21% GBP/JPY Y153,59 +0,68% AUD/USD $0,7453 -0,03% NZD/USD $0,7121 +0,20% USD/CAD C$1,28... [...]

Schedule for today, Wednesday, Jun 22’2016:

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast) 00:30 Australia Leading Index May 0.25% 09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) June 17.5 12:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m April -1.0% 0.9% 12:30 Canada Retail Sale... [...]

Major US stock indexes finished trading with an increase

Major stock indexes in Wall Street closed slightly higher, supported by statements of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen.

Yellen said the central bank will be cautious in raising interest rates against the background of the UK's membership of risks in the European Union and the slowdown in the US labor market. Recall, the Fed left interest rates unchanged and reduced its forecast for economic growth after unexpectedly weak monthly data on the labor market have put a question mark at the restoration of the economy last week.

Market participants also continued to closely monitor the polls in the UK, which in recent years point to a possible victory of supporters of preservation of the country in the EU over the adherents of "Breksita" (UK exit from the Union).

In addition, a report submitted by the Philadelphia Fed, rose sharply in June index of business activity in the services sector, reaching a level of 10.8 points compared with 4.6 points in May. The figures below zero are an indicator of a slowing economy. The indicator is published just before the ISM index of purchasing managers, and may give an idea of ​​how will an indicator of business activity at the national level.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday, breaking a two-day rally, as some market players took profits on the background of approximation of the referendum in the UK and continued uncertainty in the market. The focus of investors also shifted to the oversupply.

Most DOW components of the index closed in positive territory (24 of 30). Outsider were shares of The Boeing Company (BA, -0,74%). More rest up shares Microsoft Corporation (MSFT, + 2,44%).

Sector S & P index closed trading mixed. conglomerates (-0.4%) sectors fell most. The leader turned out to be the basic materials sector (+ 0.9%).

At the close:

Dow + 0.13% 17,828.77 +23.90

Nasdaq + 0.14% 4,843.76 +6.55

S & P + 0.27% 2,088.90 +5.65

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Daily analysis of Gold for June 21, 2016

OverviewThe gold price tested the EMA50 that formed a good support base against the last negative attempts, while stochastic begins to provide a positive overlapping signal on the four-hour time frame. This gives the price a positive motive that we ex... [...]

Daily analysis of Silver for June 21, 2016

OverviewThe silver price provided slight positive trading yesterday in an attempt to move away from the EMA50. Meanwhile, stochastic provides a positive signal now, waiting for the price to resume the main bullish wave, which targets begin at 18.00 an... [...]